Vote For Kodos - Countdown: 3 Days
To my mind, the most interesting part of Osama bin Laden's most recent message is the implied offer of a truce. If the United States simply withdraws from "the Muslim world" (he makes it unclear if he still considers Spain - Moorish territory for 700 years - to still be part of this package) and stops supporting Israel, al Qaeda will leave us in peace. In this, bin Laden's objective is two-fold: 1) He is attempting to undermine Western resolve and appeal to the peace movement. By casting himself as a reasonable resistance leader seeking an end to American imperialism, not a genocidal fanatic bent on regional hegemony, he hopes to draw indirect support from pacifists and anachronistic anti-colonialists all over the Western world. 2) Three years of the War on Terror have significantly weakened his network's ability mount large-scale operations. He has toned down his rhetoric in an attempt to buy al Qaeda time in which to regroup and rebuild their strength.

Specific to the election, will this message help President Bush or Senator Kerry? It helps President Bush because it reminds Americans that bin Laden is still out there and threatening the safety of the United States. Consistently, polls show that President Bush is regarded as better able to lead the War on Terror. It helps Senator Kerry because it reminds Americans that three years after 9/11, and after two invasions, bin Laden still hasn't been caught. This fits with Kerry's argument that President Bush took his "eyes off the prize" in invading Iraq.

Obviously, I back the first interpretation; President Bush is the far better choice to continue rolling back international Islamist terrorism. Whether or not then-Lieutenant Kerry was in Paris on his honeymoon, he still met with representatives of North Vietnam and spoke in favor of their demands upon his return to the United States. In his freshman term in the Senate, Kerry met with Daniel Ortega, leader of the Leftist Sandinistas in Nicaragua; days later, Ortega was in Moscow shaking hands with the Soviet leadership. During the Cold War, Kerry was willing to meet with Communist leaders, which gives me little confidence that a theoretical President Kerry would be unwilling to meet with al Qaeda representatives, should they seek to negotiate a truce.

H-A-N
Have a cherry night.